NHC Atlantic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 11:18:23 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191118
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Peter, located several hundred miles east
of the northernmost Leeward Islands, and on newly formed Tropical
Depression Seventeen, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
later today or tonight. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for gradual development thereafter as the system moves generally
westward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under
WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Peter are issued under
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seventeen are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Latto

Summary for Tropical Storm Peter (AT1/AL162021)

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 08:35:51 GMT

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 19 the center of Peter was located near 18.0, -53.5 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 2

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 08:35:51 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 190835 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 53.5W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 53.5 West. Peter is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur by this afternoon, with that motion continuing into Wednesday. On the forecast track, Peter is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a slow weakening trend by late Monday and on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, mainly to the northeast and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer bands south of the Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico late Sunday into Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 2

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 08:35:20 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 190835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 53.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 53.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 52.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.8N 55.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.8N 60.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.7N 62.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N 63.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.7N 64.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 53.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>

Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 2

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 08:49:47 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 389 WTNT41 KNHC 190849 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Deep convection has increased since the previous advisory, with the convective cloud pattern having taken on a more curved-band configuration compared to the earlier shear pattern. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing the intensity to 35 kt. In addition, earlier ASCAT passes, which missed the center of circulation, did reveal 30-kt winds west of the center in convection-free areas. Thus, it is reasonable to assume that stronger winds are occurring within the deep convection east of the center, which further supports upgrading the system to Tropical Storm Peter with a 35-kt intensity. The initial estimate is an uncertain 305/13 kt. Peter has made a slight jog to the north-northwest since the previous advisory, but this is likely a short-term motion owing to the center redeveloping farther to the north and east into the deep convection. However, a west-northwestward motion is expected to resume later today. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion through Wednesday as Peter moves around the southwestern periphery of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge. On Thursday and Friday, Peter is forecast to turn northward into a weakness in the ridge induced by the large Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The new forecast track has been shifted slightly to the right or north of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more northward initial position, and lies close to the consensus track models TVCA and HCCA. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours or so as Peter moves over warmer sea-surface temperatures of about 29 deg C. However, proximity to very dry mid-level air and moderate deep-layer southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to prevent any significant or rapid strengthening. By early Tuesday and beyond, slow weakening is expected to begin due to increasing wind shear. The new official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 18.0N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.8N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.8N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.8N 60.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.7N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 22.7N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 23.7N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>

Tropical Storm Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 08:35:51 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 190835 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>

Tropical Storm Peter Graphics

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:08:54 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:08:54 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:22:40 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Seventeen (AT2/AL172021)

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 08:36:24 GMT

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 the center of Seventeen was located near 11.8, -28.2 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 1

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 08:36:24 GMT

Issued at 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 123 WTNT32 KNHC 190836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 28.2W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 28.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected for the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or on Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are is expected to become less conducive for development, and the system is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>

Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 1

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 08:36:20 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 28.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 28.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 27.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.4N 29.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 31.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.6N 33.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.7N 34.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 37.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 39.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.1N 41.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 28.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>

Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 1

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 08:59:49 GMT

Issued at 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190859 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past few days has acquired a well-defined circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on 0000 UTC ASCAT wind data of about 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by consensus Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330/12 kt. The small cyclone is forecast to move in a general northwestward direction throughout the remainder of the forecast period as the system moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends westward from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the tightly packed track models. Only modest strengthening is expected during the next 48 hour so while the small cyclone remains over 27-28 deg C sea-surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear decreases to near 5 kt during that time. However, proximity to dry air is expected prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. By late Tuesday, a slow weakening trend is forecast to begin as the system moves over cooler water and the shear increases from the southwest. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models through 72 hours, and then is lower than the HCCA model on days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 11.8N 28.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 13.4N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 15.5N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.6N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 19.7N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 23.2N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.6N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 28.1N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>

Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 08:36:19 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 920 FONT12 KNHC 190836 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>

Tropical Depression Seventeen Graphics

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:01:23 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:01:23 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:28:38 GMT