NHC Atlantic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 23:50:44 GMT

868
ABNT20 KNHC 092350
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles
northeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression Mindy, located
offshore the southeast coast of the United States.

The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western
Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to move into the Bay of
Campeche and merge with a pre-existing surface trough located over
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive to support some gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
before the system moves inland over mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast
of Africa in the next day or so. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week as the system moves
west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 23:53:38 GMT

...LARRY NOW MOVING NORTH AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 9 the center of Larry was located near 34.2, -62.3 with movement N at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 37A

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 23:53:38 GMT

Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 009 WTNT32 KNHC 092353 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...LARRY NOW MOVING NORTH AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 62.3W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...34 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Arnold's Cove to Jones Harbour Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of Arnold's Cove * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Jones Harbor to Bonavista A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 62.3 West. Larry is moving toward the north near 21 mph (34 km/h). A further increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with an even faster northeastward motion forecast by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane until it passes Newfoundland. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone on Saturday, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low east of Greenland by Monday. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). Pearl Island, Bermuda, reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in southeastern Newfoundland. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern Newfoundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin ]]>

Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 37

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:57:13 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 092057 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR...NEWFOUNDLAND. THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE...AND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOUR TO BONAVISTA...NEWFOUNDLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO BONAVISTA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 62.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 320SE 280SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 62.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 180SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.4N 52.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 180SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 230SE 210SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 59.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 61.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...320NE 270SE 250SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 62.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>

Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 37

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:59:46 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 092059 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 A faint eye is still discernible on visible satellite images along with some banding features. On the Bermuda radar, the eyewall is partially open over the southern semicircle of the hurricane. Larry still has a prominent upper-tropospheric outflow pattern, especially over the northern portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity is held at 80 kt, just above the latest Dvorak Current Intensity Numbers from TAFB and SAB. Larry is now heading a little west of north at an increasing forward speed, and the initial motion is 345/17 kt. The hurricane has been moving around the western side of a large deep-layer high pressure area centered over the central Atlantic. By Friday, the system should accelerate northeastward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough over the northeastern United States, and pass near or over southeastern Newfoundland within 36 hours. Thereafter, post-tropical cyclone Larry should move over the far North Atlantic. The official track forecast again lies close to the various consensus model predictions. The hurricane is expected to remain over warm waters with weak vertical shear for another 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, Larry is forecast to move over the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream and the shear will increase. These factors should induce weakening, but possible baroclinic forcing associated with the trough to the west of the cyclone could result in Larry maintaining some strength over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the latest NOAA corrected-consensus guidance, HCCA. Global model predictions indicate that Larry will merge with a front, and therefore become an extratropical cyclone, in 48 hours. These models also show the system merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda through this evening, along with a risk of coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 33.9N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 36.8N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 42.2N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 48.4N 52.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0600Z 59.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z 61.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z...MERGED $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>

Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:59:22 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 38(38) 8(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 92(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 67(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 3( 3) 78(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) 44(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 52(52) 10(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN ]]>

Hurricane Larry Graphics

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 23:53:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 23:53:33 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 21:22:52 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Mindy (AT3/AL132021)

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:37:12 GMT

...MINDY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Mindy was located near 32.0, -78.3 with movement ENE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Mindy Public Advisory Number 5

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:37:12 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092037 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...MINDY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 78.3W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 78.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a decrease in forward speed on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen ]]>

Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 5

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:36:48 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092036 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.3W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.3W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 78.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN ]]>

Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 5

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:39:12 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092039 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 The latest infrared satellite imagery indicates that Mindy has been devoid of convection near its center since about the time it emerged over the Atlantic this morning. Deep convection is present well to the northeast of Mindy along a surface trough that extends northeastward from the cyclone. A late morning ASCAT pass showed a large area of 25 to 30 kt winds southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on this data. The ASCAT data and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become less well-defined, with barely any east winds observed on the north side. Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to become even stronger. The latest forecast calls for Mindy to become post-tropical on Friday and dissipate Friday night. However, based on the lack on convection and the deteriorating wind structure, it is quite possible that dissipation could occur much sooner than forecast. Mindy continues moving quickly off to the east-northeast, with a motion of 075/20 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Mindy is forecast to continue moving east-northeastward at a similar speed for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little on Friday. The NHC forecast is a little south of and slightly faster than the previous forecast, mainly due to the farther south initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 32.0N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen ]]>

Tropical Depression Mindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:37:54 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 075 FONT13 KNHC 092037 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN ]]>

Tropical Depression Mindy Graphics

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:40:39 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:40:39 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 21:28:52 GMT