NHC Atlantic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 05:13:27 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090513
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles
east-southeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Mindy, located
inland over northern Florida.

The northern portion of a tropical wave over the western Caribbean
Sea is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche on
Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to
support some gradual development of the system before it moves
into mainland Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast
of Africa on Saturday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form by early next week as it moves west-northwestward over
the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mindy are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mindy are issued under WMO
header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:04 GMT

...BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWS RAINBANDS APPROACHING... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 9 the center of Larry was located near 30.9, -61.1 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 35

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:04 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090842 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 09 2021 ...BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWS RAINBANDS APPROACHING... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 61.1W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from St. Schotts to Pouch Cove A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern Newfoundland from Lamaline to west of St. Schotts * Southeastern Newfoundland from north of Pouch Cove to Bonavista A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 61.1 West. Larry is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast today, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda today, and move near or over southeastern Newfoundland Friday night or early Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry should become an extratropical cyclone early Saturday, after passing by Newfoundland, then weaken further while it passes southeast of Greenland Sunday night. Larry is expected to be absorbed by a larger baroclinic system east of Greenland Monday. Larry remains very large, with Hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning later this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in southeastern Newfoundland Friday night with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in southeastern Newfoundland by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will continue affecting the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Hurricane Larry may periodically impact Bermuda Thursday. Significant rainfall totals are currently not expected, however briefly heavy rain rates within these bands may result in an inch or two of rain through Thursday. Heavy rains from Larry will move quickly across eastern New Foundland Friday night, producing 1 to 2 inches of rain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts ]]>

Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 35

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:42:49 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090842 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ST. SCHOTTS TO POUCH COVE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM LAMALINE TO WEST OF ST. SCHOTTS * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF POUCH COVE TO BONAVISTA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..430NE 320SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.9N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.7N 62.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.8N 59.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 160SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 47.9N 52.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 230SE 210SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 54.1N 45.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 220SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 59.2N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...320NE 270SE 250SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 61.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>

Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 34

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 02:58:23 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090258 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 The infrared satellite presentation of Larry this evening is giving the false impression of a well-organized hurricane, with a ring of colder cloud tops (-65 to -70 C) and a warm spot within. However, we are fortunate to have in-situ data provided by an Air Force Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter mission investigating Larry this evening. Their observations show that Larry's center is actually southwest of the warm spot seen on satellite. In fact, the plane was unable to identify an eye with Larry, and the highest flight-level and SFMR winds were found nearly 80 nautical miles away from the center. Moreover, there remains a large discrepancy between the peak 700-mb flight level winds (108-kt) versus the much lower SFMR peak values (67-kt). This suggests that the 90 percent reduction factor that is typically applied to 700-mb flight level winds in the eyewall may not be appropriate for this hurricane given its very large radius of maximum winds more associated with weaker outer convection. Given these factors, the latest NHC initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt for this advisory. This intensity is also a good compromise between the SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak estimates. The hurricane's heading is still off to the northwest with the latest motion at 330/14 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed much for the last few days, with Larry moving around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic. The hurricane should make its closest approach to the east of Bermuda tomorrow as it gradually turns north-northwest and north. After that, the hurricane will begin to dramatically accelerate to the northeast as Larry is picked up by a deep-layer trough moving offshore of the eastern United States. The latest forecast track is quite similar to the previous one, and takes Larry across the southeast portion of Newfoundland in 48-60 hours. The official forecast remains close to the tightly clustered track guidance consensus. The current structure of Larry appears to be somewhat tilted with height, with the low-level center identified by recon located to the southwest of the apparent center on IR satellite. While the shear as diagnosed by SHIPS appears to be lower, it appears dry air has significantly disrupted Larry's inner core structure, to the point that it likely will be unable to take advantage of the more favorable conditions. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, owing to the lower initial intensity, but begins to show more pronounced weakening after 24 hours when the hurricane will accelerate poleward of the northern wall of the Gulf Stream. However, Larry is still forecast to be a hurricane as it passes near or over Newfoundland, though likely beginning to undergo extratropical transition. The models continue to maintain Larry as a large formidable cyclone after extratropical transition is complete while it moves into the far north Atlantic east of Greenland. This cyclone will eventually merge with another extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. The center of Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda on Thursday, but given Larry's large size, tropical storm conditions are expected there on Thursday, along with a risk of coastal flooding. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates. 3. Larry is forecast to move near or over portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Friday and Friday night as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. There is an increasing risk of impacts from high winds, rainfall, and storm surge in portions of Newfoundland, and interests there should monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 29.7N 60.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 31.5N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 34.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 39.3N 60.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 45.2N 55.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 51.6N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z 57.4N 41.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z 63.8N 35.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin ]]>

Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:04 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 090842 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 41(41) 11(52) X(52) X(52) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 89(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 66(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 58(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 36(36) 10(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 41 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) BERMUDA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS ]]>

Hurricane Larry Graphics

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 06:01:41 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 06:01:41 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 03:23:05 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Mindy (AT3/AL132021)

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 01:17:54 GMT

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MINDY SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Mindy was located near 30.8, -83.0 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Mindy Public Advisory Number 3

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:42:04 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090841 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MINDY SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 83.0W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the Gulf coast of Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower east-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move across southeastern Georgia this morning, and over the western Atlantic by late this morning or early this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual weakening is expected on Friday, and Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low by Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina through this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts may occur near the center of Mindy over portions of the southeastern Georgia through this morning. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north Florida and far south Georgia through this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>

Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 3

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:42:03 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090841 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>

Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 3

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:42:49 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090842 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of Mindy has moved inland over southern Georgia overnight. Now that more of the circulation has moved over land, the cyclone has weakened and the latest observations indicate that Mindy has become a tropical depression with an estimated intensity of 30 kt. Mindy is forecast to move over the western Atlantic by this afternoon, but strong southwesterly shear is expected to prevent re-strengthening. In fact, the shear is forecast to increase to around 35 kt by tonight, and this is likely to strip away any remaining deep convection and cause gradual weakening. Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low in about 48 hours and dissipate by day 3, but given the expected shear both of those events could occur sooner. Mindy continues to move briskly northeastward or 055/17 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Mindy should continue to move northeastward near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that will be moving across the eastern United States today. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward late tonight and Friday, Mindy should slow down and turn east-northeastward until dissipation occurs. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been modified accordingly. The new NHC track lies between the GFEX consensus aid and the GFS ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible across portions of southeastern Georgia this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.8N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>

Tropical Depression Mindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:42:04 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 090841 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>

Tropical Depression Mindy Graphics

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:13 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:13 GMT

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:13 GMT

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (NHC Webmaster) — Thu, 09 Sep 2021 07:19:39 GMT

Issued at 319 AM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021